The Italian economy ended the second quarter of 2026 with growth of 0.2% compared with the previous three months and 1% year on year. Istat’s new estimate raises acquired growth for the full year to 0.8%, two-tenths of a percentage point above its previous assessment. The result is better than expected, but does not point to a broad-based recovery.

The positive contribution came mainly from services. Agriculture and industry, by contrast, continued to record a decline in value added, while net foreign demand weighed on the overall result. In other words, GDP is rising, but the sectors most exposed to physical production and international trade remain under pressure.

Businesses should interpret the figure with caution. Growth of 0.2% reduces the immediate risk of stagnation, but is not enough to offset energy costs, selective lending and weak orders across several manufacturing sectors. Service companies are benefiting from more resilient demand; for industry and exporters, however, the priority remains protecting margins and liquidity.

The labour market is also sending a mixed signal. Overall employment remained broadly stable, but the number of temporary workers increased while permanent employees declined. This indicates caution: companies are continuing to hire where needed, while avoiding immediately turning increased activity into long-term commitments.

By European comparison, the euro area grew by 0.4% over the quarter and Spain by 0.7%. Italy therefore remains in positive territory, but is advancing more slowly than Europe’s more dynamic economies. The slowdown in the United States and uncertainty surrounding international trade could also weigh in the coming months on Italian companies with greater exposure to foreign markets.

The key issue to monitor is the quality of growth in the second half of the year. If the recovery remains confined to services, the improvement in GDP will have limited effects on productive capacity and investment. A more robust recovery, by contrast, requires a rebound in industrial orders, greater employment stability and a less negative contribution from foreign demand.