The growth disparity amplifies as the society of intermediation predicts a 4-5% increase in medium-term for the entire maritime industry. The data outlines a faster-paced market: expansion won't solely depend on overall merchandise movement but also on scaling capabilities and operator efficiency to intercept containerized cargo and more articulated logistical services. Divergence pertains even structure competitiveness.

According to research by The Hindu BusinessLine, private operators might grow at a pace two or three times that of average. Motilal Oswal specifically mentions APSEZ and JSWINFRA, predicting rates akin to those of the industry. Supporting them would be both organic expansions and external operations alongside integration between port activities and logistical solutions.

FY26 data shows already a net difference between various port scales. Major Indian ports moved 915 million metric tons, about 7% more than previous period. Growth fueled by foreign inflows increased by 6.6%, and coastal traffic rose by 8%.

Non-major Indian ports volumes reached 753 million metric tons with an annual increment of approximately 1.4%, according to Motilal Oswal. Comparison not only quantitatively indicates investment, connection logistcs, and composition of traffics may concentrate growing share of development among major scale and better-equipped operators. Even within major ports, scenario changes depending on commodities.

In FY26, POL (petroleum, petroleum products, and coal) component recorded significant increase of 16% compared to preceding year resulting as main contributor to growth. Carbon and containers showed robust progress but projections indicate they won't necessarily follow same direction. Carbons represent most evident case.

Society of intermediation predicts this cargo will contract at compounded rate ranging from 2% to 4%, linked to domestic production rise and renewable energy diffusion. Contrast with observed growth in major ports during FY26, however, no conclusive timing or intensity can be established for inversion. For iron ore, report suggests revival.

Between FY26 and FY28, volume might grow at compounded rate of 5-7%, thanks to enhanced movement along coastlines. Dynamics less sustained than those expected for petroleum component. After increasing 16% noted in FY26, POL traffic normalizes.

Motilal Oswal estimates a compounded growth rate of 2-4% between FY26 and FY28: relative stability of fuel demand continues to support volumes while efficiency improvement limits expansion. Passage from strong acceleration to moderate pace signals need to distinguish results already registered from medium-term prospects. On governance side, growth intertwines public valuation program infrastructure.

NMP 2.0 initiative identifies 44 port brownfield projects including terminals, piers, and moles to monetize through public-private partnerships. Measure assigns significant role to private capital in modernizing existing structures. Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 strategy focuses on realization six mega-port facilities equipped international-level infrastructure and increase overall Indian capacity by 2800 to 10000 million metric tons per annum until 2047.

Remaining steps involve attaining implementation timeline, distribution of projects, and scaling capabilities of non-major ports to bridge gap. Evolution individual commodities determines which investments yield most returns.