Comparing Two Economic Scenarios Predicted by the Public Finance Program Document [1] The DPFP has noted an increase in the GDP growth rate of the GDP until -0.2 percentage points in 2027 and -0.1 in 2028 compared to the -0.6% expected in the April budget document. This trend is due to a less favorable scenario for energy prices, which could lead to a delay in economic growth. [2] Alternatively, the analysis of the DPFP anticipates a lower GDP growth rate of 0.1 percentage points in 2029 compared to the macroeconomic framework, considering more negative financial conditions such as the deposit.

This scenario would have a significant impact on Italy's economic growth.[3] The Council of Ministers' approval of a budgetary adjustment of approximately 29 billion euros, primarily for energy and defense spending, was seen as a way to address geopolitical risks.

However, this choice has led to an increase in the public deficit, which rises to 3% of GDP in 2027 and 2028 without ever reaching the 3% threshold. The resources for the gap have been allocated to energy and defense expenses, while fiscal measures within the maneuver must find cover in ordinary accounts. This difference counts for the procedure for excessive deficit, where Italy is still subject to the 3.1% deficit after 2025, according to Giorgetti.[6] In summary, the approach of DPFP has led to a series of financial shocks, but also to an increase in the public deficit, which reaches 3% of GDP in 2027 and 2028, although it never exceeds the 3% threshold.

The approval of a budgetary adjustment of approximately 29 billion euros has had a significant impact on Italy's economic growth, but it has led to an increase in the public deficit, which reaches 3% of GDP in 2027 and 2028 without ever reaching the 3% threshold.