The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are radically changing oil prices, with direct implications for businesses and international trade. According to economist Mark Smith from RNZ, the operational closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a new risk variable for oil prices. The source specifies that oil prices have risen from around $20 per barrel to $70, an increase that pushes refining costs to higher levels.

This dynamic was confirmed by Mike Jones from BNZ, who noted that the war has accelerated market times and introduced an additional 'risk premium'. Immediate consequences are reflected in the operational costs of businesses dependent on fuel imports. The source indicates that the price of petrol has dropped by 1.6% in the last 28 days, but remains significantly higher than the pre-conflict period.

This cost increase has been recorded across the country, with the cheapest petrol at Pak 'n Save Tauranga costing $2.676. For the automotive and industrial sectors, fuel costs represent a critical factor for final price planning. The source reports that diesel prices have dropped by 0.62% and 1.4% compared to petrol, but the final cost for consumers remains high.

Economists predict that prices will return to February levels, but with higher volatility than the pre-conflict period. International trade has been strongly influenced by the situation. The source mentions that oil production has been reduced via dark channels and through pipelines, with supplier responses contributing to price stabilization.

However, the source confirms that the global market was in oversupply before the war, a factor that should help prices correct if the situation worsens. Implications for investments are complex and depend on the duration of the crisis resolution. The source cites Mike Jones, who noted that before the war the market was considered in oversupply, a factor that should help prices drop if there is a durable resolution.

However, the source specifies that prices are likely to remain higher than pre-conflict levels. Price variability has increased, with the source indicating an increase in spread prices from around $20 per barrel to $70. This increase was attributed to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating uncertainty about future prices for the rest of the year and up to 2027.

Economists warn that it is difficult to predict prices through the rest of the year and up to 2027, as it involves a rapidly moving war. The source specifies that expectations of returning to February levels are ambitious at the moment. The situation presents additional risks for businesses that cannot predict future costs with certainty.