As elections may influence U. S. foreign policy and trade, Scenario 1: A Republican Revival. Currently, according to polls, this appears to be the least likely scenario.

However, if it were to occur, Trump would interpret it as confirmation of the validity of his 'America First' strategy. Given that he no longer needs to worry about re-election, it is likely that the last two years of Trump's term would focus on consolidating his political legacy, which he considers his most significant achievements. In this scenario, there would be further reinforcement of border controls, accompanied by increased deportations.

The dogmatic policy would increasingly focus on encouraging partner countries to align with U. S. international policies; in addition, NATO members would be asked to increase defense spending. Trump would feel encouraged to exert strong pressure, both economically and militarily, on Iran, while also demanding that other countries contribute to these efforts.

Regulatory deregulation would likely be a central theme, alongside the acceleration of technological innovation and the promotion of the manufacturing sector and energy production (both fossil and nuclear), aimed at stimulating economic growth. However, it is probable that concerns over public finances would intensify. This scenario could lead to a more gradual change in U.

S. foreign policy and trade, but it would not have the same impact on the elections themselves. The economy might still be more reliable, but it could be less engaging for media and political actors. [P3] Scenario 3: A Non-Resultful Election In this case, foreign policy and trade would still be influenced by Trump's decisions, but his role in the elections would be minimal. There could be slight variations in border policies and security, but they would not be significant. [END OF SOURCES]