The negative performance for Bank BPM has seen its share decrease significantly. The experts predict that the net profit for the third quarter will be around 2% below consensus, amounting to 440 million (from 581 million in the second quarter) and that 'the CET1 will fall by 20 basis points on a quarterly basis, reaching 14.2%, primarily due to the market valuation of the portfolio obligation.' As a result, the analysts, while maintaining the recommendation 'Hold', reduce the target price to 15.3 euros, 'reflecting a greater capital cost risk, now at 12% from 11.4% previously.' They then foresee 'moderate interest margin growth (+1% on a quarterly basis) and a 8% reduction in commission income, due to lower performance commissions compared to the second quarter and seasonal effects.' Rising interest rates on bonds and higher costs of certificates are expected to negatively impact trading profits. Additionally, the experts lower the EPS estimates for the period 2026-2028 by 3% due to 'higher interest rates (now incorporating an Euribor to three months at 2.75% until 2028) offsetting lower trading income, due to higher certificate costs, and other favorable dynamics,' as stated in the report.

Jefferies also note that Bank BPM remains at the center of M&A speculation in the Italian banking sector: 'On one hand, the main shareholder Credit Agricolo has publicly expressed its interest in integrating with Bank BPM and the Italian-controlled Credit Agricole Italia; on the other, Mps is seeking approval from shareholders to launch an offer public acquisition on Bank BPM.' Beyond M&A prospects, the company presents fewer potential catalysts compared to other medium-sized capitalized banks, while the valuation is higher: the estimated P/E ratio for 2028 is 9.6 times, against 8.3 times for Intesa Sanpaolo and 9.4 times for Bper. The negative performance of Bank BPM follows that of the entire banking sector at Piazza Affari: from UniCredit, passing through Bper Banca and Mediobanca. Also, the protagonists of risk in the banking sector are red after Goldstone Capital Limited, a shareholder of Banca Monte Paschi Siena supported by Qatari investors, and Fondazione Mps have declared their intention to participate in...

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