Pascal Lamy, coordinator of the Jacques Delors think-tank network, has spent much of his career dealing with international trade. He served as European commissioner for trade from 1999 to 2004 and as director-general of the World Trade Organization from 2005 to 2013. Yet in his assessment of current transatlantic relations, tariffs, exports and market shares rank behind Ukraine and NATO’s future.

Turning to the Turnberry agreement, Lamy said Europe had so far contained the damage, although at a significant cost. Above all, it had avoided the risk that Donald Trump, during one of his customary shifts in mood, might say: “If that is how it is, I will leave you on your own in Ukraine.”

The economic price nevertheless remains substantial. “We are paying through the loss of market share in the United States, corresponding to the increase in tariffs. But this is not the most dramatic aspect of the relationship,” Lamy said.

He also warned that Trump’s broad use of tariffs as a political and economic tool could face a serious test in the autumn. “If the Republicans were to lose, the president would be blocked and would inevitably come under pressure from a new impeachment attempt.”