Geopolitical crisis has led to increases in oil and food prices. The war in the Middle East has caused a series of global logistics disruptions, with rising transit and loading costs. Additionally, political tensions have often been accompanied by military conflicts, leading to excessive production of primary products such as oil and food.

The World Bank has predicted a 23% increase in primary product prices in 2026, based on data from the previous year. This increase is mainly due to the war in the Middle East, but also to maritime transport disruptions and the effects of climate events like El Niño. In particular, the price of oil is expected to be $92 per barrel for the entire 2026 season, with a 32% increase compared to previous times.

This increase is mainly due to the delay in oil output, which has led to increased transit and loading costs. At the same time, food prices are expected to increase by 7% in 2026, influenced by the war in the Middle East and maritime transport disruptions. These disruptions have led to excessive production of primary products, causing an increase in prices.

This price increase could lead to improved international migration and a reduction in carbon emissions, as many poorer countries are seeking to accommodate thousands of migrants to resolve economic issues. Moreover, this increase could lead to tax releases and improve monetary security, as financial markets are reacting to these changes. However, this situation could be accompanied by an increase in monetary pressure, which could lead to higher carbon emission taxes and improved monetary security.

Additionally, global logistics disruptions could lead to an increase in political tensions, but also to improved international migration and a reduction in carbon emissions. In conclusion, the war in the Middle East and maritime transport disruptions will lead to an increase in primary product prices in 2026, but also to improved international migration and a reduction in carbon emissions.