Global trade growth is higher than expected, but Asia is the true star. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecasts for global merchandise trade to 3.9% in 2026 compared to the 1.9% previously predicted in March. This growth is mainly due to the boom in investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which has had a positive impact even on Asian countries. Global trade growth was estimated at 3.5% in the first half of 2026, although the Gulf War caused some problems. However, markets for fertilizers and oil have responded well to disruptions, limiting declines in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Markets for AI, which were considered less promising, exceeded expectations and significantly contributed to global trade growth.

In particular, semiconductor and servers have represented 47% of global trade growth in the first half of 2026. Robert Staiger, General Director of the World Trade Organization, emphasized that 'the real economy is really being driven by AI investment.' Asian economies have become the true protagonist of the global market, with a 3.9% increase in 2026 and an additional 4.1% increase in 2027. While Asia has been resilient to the damage caused by the Gulf War disasters, not all parts of the world have been so fortunate. The WTO noted that the resilience of global supply chains exceeded expectations thanks to changes in procurement requests and strategic reserves. However, it was observed that AI investment growth was not uniformly distributed.

Some parts of the world, such as Europe and the United States, have seen a decrease in their global trade growth, while other regions remain weak. The rise in AI investment in Asia is mainly attributed to the boom in AI investments that has rapidly increased over the past two years. However, other factors, including strengthening strategic resources and facilitating transportation, have also contributed to the growth of global trade. END SOURCES